The domestic film market is preparing for a notable renaissance this Thanksgiving, anticipated to achieve its most significant revenue generation since the onset of the pandemic. Factors contributing to this optimism include the release of Disney’s “Moana 2,” a family-friendly animated adventure, alongside Universal’s musical “Wicked” and Paramount’s action-packed “Gladiator II.” Analysts project that these three films will help the box office rake in between $200 million and $250 million throughout the busy five-day holiday weekend spanning from Wednesday to Sunday.
Industry experts indicate that the combination of these three tentpole films creates a rare “perfect storm” at the box office. Shawn Robbins, a prominent analyst at Fandango, highlighted that “the trifecta of ‘Moana 2,’ ‘Wicked,’ and ‘Gladiator II’ is a bona fide perfect storm for movie theaters this Thanksgiving.” This resurgence is particularly significant, as achieving such a cohesive combination of audience-friendly releases has proven to be a challenging feat since the pandemic disrupted normal cinema attendance patterns. Historically, Thanksgiving has been an important season for high-grossing films, but post-pandemic statistics have often fallen short of pre-2020 norms.
Movies released during Thanksgiving have typically garnered significant earnings. The current standard for success was set in 2018, when the box office generated a phenomenal total of $315 million, led by titles like “Ralph Breaks the Internet,” “Creed II,” and “Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald.” Following the trend, 2013’s Thanksgiving weekend also saw considerable success with $294.2 million. This year, analysts feel optimistic that, buoyed by promising releases, the box office may echo those record-setting weekends, marking a significant recovery for the industry.
After experiencing remarkable box office success for years with its animated holiday releases, Disney now finds itself in an uphill battle to regain its past glory. Historically, Disney’s animated films have dominated Thanksgiving revenue—titles like “Moana,” “Coco,” “Frozen II,” and “Ralph Breaks the Internet” enjoyed impressive openings. However, recent efforts have stumbled. The pandemic proved a significant blow to their offerings, with “Encanto” pulling in a modest $40.6 million and “Strange World” flopping with earnings of just $18.9 million over the holiday period in 2022. With “Wish” managing only $31.6 million during this year’s holiday, it appears crucial for Disney to secure a victorious return to animation with “Moana 2.”
The anticipation surrounding “Moana 2” seems well-founded. Following the first film’s extraordinary success—recorded as the “top-streamed film aimed at kids and families”—the sequel is poised to attract family audiences eager for more dynamic storytelling from Disney. The positive reception of earlier summer hits, like “Inside Out 2,” reinforces this optimism; the sequel to the beloved film earned $154.2 million domestically during its debut week alone, proving the appetite for animated family films remains robust.
As Thanksgiving draws near, the box office’s performance during this critical holiday weekend will serve as a litmus test for the industry’s overall health as it plunges into the year-end sprint. Paul Dergarabedian from Comscore underscores this sentiment, stating, “Thanksgiving is arguably the most important holiday period of the year for movie theaters.” The outcome will profoundly impact annual box office revenues and the industry’s narrative—serving either as a triumphant comeback story or another chapter in a challenging narrative.
The stakes have never been higher, and the convergence of these major releases heralds a potential turning point for the post-pandemic film landscape. The industry’s ability to entice audiences back into theaters hinges not only on the specific films but also on the collective motion of rekindling moviegoing as a cherished communal experience. If Disney and its competitors can recognize and harness this momentum successfully, audiences may see a rejuvenated cinema scene, bringing with it a renewed vibrancy for years to come.